R.I.P. John Edwards

No, he's not dead, but today John Edwards dropped out of the Democratic Presidential Primary.

Not that this came as a galloping shock to anyone. I don't think anyone following the primary campaigns expected Edwards to win the nomination, but this news certainly has the possibility of having a major impact on the Democratic race. To begin with, Edwards was probably the best candidate the Democrats had. He's a southern man (remember that the Democrats haven't had a President who wasn't from the south since Kennedy almost 50 years ago), and he was also probably the most liberal Democrat in the race, even though that wasn't necessarily the perception. In a lot of ways, Edwards is perceived as more moderate than he is, probably because he's from the South. But, Edwards campaign was all about poverty, the plight of the lower middle class and the poor; the lack of health insurance that plagues miliions of Americans; and the idea that increasing trade and globalization of corporations has taken away American jobs. Edwards saw himself as a champion of the little guy and that was the central theme of his campaign.

Edwards hasn't endorsed anyone yet, but CNN is reporting that it's more likely for him to endorse Obama than Clinton as they see Obama's campaign being more about the issues that Edwards cared about and Clinton as more of a product of the establishment. I believe things are almost certainly more complicated than that. Four years ago John Kerry chose John Edwards as his running mate in the 2004 Presidential election. The hope was that Edwards would bring in southern voters and help Kerry to win a few states in the south, something no Democrat but Bill Clinton has done in a long time. This strategy didn't work; Bush won every Southern state, but I believe that the principle behind it still works.

Whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, they'll need to pick a running mate. I think it unlikely that we'll see Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton as the ticket. The divisiveness of the campaign and who these two candidates are makes me doubt very seriously that either will choose the other as his or her running mate. Ideally, a Vice-Presidential nominee helps a candidate bring in a few votes he wouldn't otherwise get, but doesn't overshadow the top of the ticket. I believe that Barack Obama and Hilary Clinton are so close in national polls and notoriety, that each would be seen as taking attention away from the other if they were put on the same ticket. Furthermore, there has already been tension between these two in the early primaries and they are so close in the polls that this could drag out a long time with even more bickering, sniping and tension between the two candidates. For these reasons, it seems unlikely to me that we'll see these two on the same ticket. Instead, I think we'll once again see John Edwards on the bottom of the Democratic ticket.

What I find most interesting about John Edwards decision to drop out today is the timing. A week after the South Carolina primary (which he'd probably expected to make a better showing in) and a week BEFORE Super Tuesday when nearly two dozen states will vote. It could simply be a matter of his campaign running out of money, but I think there may be more at play here. Edwards knows he's not winning the nomination and he wants to get the VP nod again. I think his decision to drop out now could very well be a play to get that nomination. Either, one of the candidates has offered it to him (in exchange for his endorsement), or he wants to give them time to make that offer and he can throw his support behind that candidate before Super Tuesday. The latter scenario seems more likely to me since he hasn't endorsed anyone yet.

While it's entirely possible that I'm seeing more in this situation than is really there, it makes sense that there would be something behind it. No matter who he gives his support to, Edwards has the potential ability to swing this election. He's been consistently polling in the 20% range and he's been talking about issues that the other candidates aren't really touching on. Edwards' supporters seem to represent a significant block of Democratic voters who could have a definate impact on whether Hilary Clinton or Barack Obama wins this primary.